Unconfounding LLM Routing Decisions with Instrumental Variables in Python
product experimentation•Jul 29, 2026

Unconfounding LLM Routing Decisions with Instrumental Variables in Python

When measuring model quality, standard regression approaches can be flawed due to confounding variables. This tutorial shows how to use instrumental variables to extract a clean causal estimate from LLM routing decisions in Python.

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Key summary

A tutorial on using instrumental variables to unconfound LLM routing decisions in Python, avoiding the pitfalls of standard regression analysis.

TL;DR

  • Standard regression approaches to measuring model quality are flawed due to confounding variables.
  • Instrumental variables can be used to extract a clean causal estimate from LLM routing decisions.
  • Two-stage least squares (2SLS) is a method for estimating causal effects using instrumental variables.
  • Rate-limit-triggered fallbacks can be used as an instrument for LLM routing decisions.
  • Instrument strength can be checked using the first-stage F-statistic.
  • Local average treatment effect (LATE) can be recovered using 2SLS instead of mistaking it for the average treatment effect.
  • Confounding variables can be identified and addressed using causal inference techniques.

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